Talk of the Town
Dr Afzal Siraj Ch
CPEC:Domestic And International Security Challenges
‘CPEC only could become a game-changer, if Pakistan succeeded in overcoming its security challenges.’
The Former Diplomat Riaz Ahmad Khan
The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is an ambitious project that aims at changing the geo-economic dynamics of Pakistan-China relations and augmenting the trading activity in the region. It anticipates economic growth, meeting the energy shortfall requirements, employment generation, foreign direct investment, infrastructure development, promotion of tourism and others.
The vision behind CPEC is to improve the lives of people of China and Pakistan by building economic cooperation, logistics and people to people contact for regional connectivity. Moreover, it includes integrated transport and IT system, communication channels, agricultural developments and poverty alleviation. Furthermore, it incorporates tourism, financial cooperation, human resource development and others.
The multi-billion project offers a long-term investment in Pakistan, involving the regional countries as well. However, the project is being challenged by domestic controversies and external opposition. In this scenario if these challenges are affectively tackled, it may lead to economic interdependence that would be climacteric for peace and economic development for the region.
After the completion of the corridor, it will become a primary gateway for trade among China, Africa and the Middle East. It is expected that this corridor will help cut the 12000 km route. There are myriads of benefits of CPEC,that are stimulating the hope for bright future of the corridor. The journey would not be with out hurdles as there are several intrinsic and extrinsic challenges that are an impediment to the churning out of the CPEC.
The first and foremost challenge domestically is an absence of rule of law. The basic purpose of rule of law is to provide securing of life and free movement to people. With out rule of law sustained development remains an elusive goal; peace, investment and development all are linked with the values of law. If law and order situation remains inadequate in the country then international as well as domestic investors will be reluctant to invest in Pakistan.
The second major threat to CPEC project is political instability in the country that has become a serious problem in Pakistan. Political firmness is pre-requisite for the economic growth and development of the country. Uncertainty is ahead of Pakistan political crisis. Resultantly security issues and political instability arise in Pakistan leading to military interference in the state affairs getting ground for a military coup. Thus political uncertainty unless not done away with, would continue to remain a challenge for the CPEC projects’ implementation progress.
The third major obstacle to the implementation of CPEC project is an institutional imbalance. Pakistan is a country where the military has ruled for around 35 years out of 70 years of her life. Through out all the three martial law regimes, the constitution of Pakistan was abrogated, suspended or held in abeyance. Presently the CPEC is facing tremendous security challenges. In order to guarantee a secure environment for the CPEC developments, the military is expanding its power. This phenomenon significantly affects the civil-military relations and civilian control over the military that is challenging the process of democratic transition. The need has arisen that the military should be kept aside from interfering in the political matters of the country so that govt might make policies for the, in the way people want.
The fourth major challenge towards implementation of CPEC is the unrest in Balochistan province. Due to the fact that Gwadar part is located in province of Balochistan the ongoing insurgency in the province posses crucial challenges to the success of CPEC project. Consequently, the benefits of CPEC investment can be accurately measured if its impact on terrorism can be calculated.
Apart from domestic challenges, CPEC project implementation is facing several international challenges as well.
The first and foremost external challenge to the corridor is India’s belligerent attitude towards CPEC. Indian felonious demand is that Gilgit-Baltistan is a disputed territory. Therefore,; route of CPEC passing through that territory is unjustified.
Another considerable concern with in India is that She sees Gwadar a deep-sea port as a part of China’s “string of pearls” basis that extends from its eastern coast to the Arabian sea. China is also developing ports in Sri-Lanka and Bangladesh (that are considered a potential military challenge to India). India perceives that in future China can block sea access to India by burgeoning such ports. Consequently, India is unhappy with the development of CPEC and trying to sabotage CPEC by playing its card in Balochistan. The recent arrest of Indian agent Kulbhushan Jadev testifies the involvement of India in Balochistan in particular and in Pakistan in general.
Lt Col (R) Muhammad Usman in his article ‘RAW AND CPEC’writes that, while addressing a seminar, Gen Zubair Hayat, Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee has revealed that RAW established a new cell with a special allocation of over $500 Million in 2015 to sabotage CPEC projects. It is not first time that Pakistan has flagged the fact. In April 2016, Secretary of Defence Gen Alam Khattak (Retired) also told while briefing Senate Defence Committee “Indian Intelligence agency, RAW has established a special cell at its HQs in New Delhi to sabotage CPEC projects via Afghanistan”. No amount of Indian denial could obscure truth. This could also be traced in expressions/utterances appeared time to time. A diplomatic cable sent on December 31, 2009 from US consulate at Karachi as revealed by Wiki Leaks read “it was plausible that Indian intelligence was helping Bloch insurgents”.
Confessional statement of Kulbhushan is a proof of committing terrorism in Pakistan. In April 2017, connection between Indian RAW and TTP was publicly revealed by TTP former spokesperson Ehsanullah Ehsan. This could also be extrapolated from an article published in leading Indian newspaper “Hindustan Times” by Bharat Karnard; a national security expert. He wrote that TTP is an active card for India in Pakistan and Afghanistan. Indian belligerence to CPEC could also be deciphered from their official as well as public pronouncements. Indian diplomatic concern about CPEC, for passing through disputed area and Chinese maritime hegemony in Indian Ocean in wake of Chinese naval base at Gwadar.
An assertion of Indian defence Minister in May 2015 also betrays Indian proclivity to employ terrorism as a mean to achieve ends “neutralize terrorists through terrorists only”. Modi speech at Indian 70th Independence Day where he boasted that Kashmiris and Bloch alike have thanked him for raising concern about human rights violations against them by Pakistani state. Foreign propaganda at mainstream as well as on social media to dispute credentials of CPEC. In aftermath of US South Asia policy, expression of concern by US over Indian links with TTP is yet another acknowledgement. US knows actual story. Now US offer to Pakistan to take on TTP militants in Afghanistan is more explicit manifestation of Indian meddling in affairs of Pakistan.
An array of militant groups with varied interests is unleashing violence in Balochistan.Baloch nationalists and armed separatists are targeting the CPEC project, not so much the need for such a project but the way it is being implemented. They fear that they are being left out from the project’s benefits and are objecting to Balochi resources being exploited for the benefit of “outsiders”.
As a spokesperson for the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) said recently, the Baloch resistance is opposed to ‘the China Pakistan nexus to loot Baloch resources.” Since 2014, Baloch militants have killed around 44 Pakistanis working on the CPEC project in Balochistan and have targeted Chinese as well. In September 2016,BLA militants attacked Chinese engineers working on the Dudher Zinc project in Balochistan.
Frontier Corps (FC) Balochistan chief, Major General Sher Afgan and the powerful Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence agency both blame Indian and Afghan intelligence agencies. At a recent conference in Quetta, Afgan said that India and Afghanistan were behind subversive activities to disrupt peace in the province. He also claimed to have foiled their plots on several occasions. A Foreign Ministry spokesperson said that Pakistan would raise the issue of Indian involvement in terrorism activities in Pakistan at the international level.
Pakistan launched different operations to curb the terrorist activities. As a result overall security in Pakistan has improved in past few years. Despite the facts that terrorists still manage to carry out attacks. The recent spate of terrorist bomb blasts in Quetta Balochistan is evident to that. Hence to provide security to workers along CPEC Pakistan needs more vibrant security measures to ensure peace for smooth operationalization of CPEC.
Even though the project faces many challenges, however the prospects it presents are also massive which include economic boost, energy transformation, infrastructure development, employment generation and regional connectivity. Coupled with these opportunities Pakistan and China will get the maximum extract of this joint step of CPEC.
