Assessing AUKUS: Impacts on Asian and Global Security in Relation to China and Russia – By: Farjad Ali
In December 2021, the United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia announced a strategic defense pact known as AUKUS. Recently, the partnership unveiled plans for a fleet of nuclear-powered submarines aimed at countering China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific. This raises concerns about whether the agreement heightens the risk of a nuclear confrontation between China, the US, and their respective allies.
Under the AUKUS framework, the US will provide Australia with at least three nuclear-powered submarines, with further collaboration to build a new fleet equipped with advanced technologies. This pact aligns with broader US efforts to solidify alliances with NATO in Europe and partners like Japan and South Korea in Asia. In the Indo-Pacific, the US has enhanced the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (comprising Australia, India, Japan, and the US) and established AUKUS alongside Australia and the UK. These moves have alarmed both Beijing and Moscow, who argue such alliances could ignite a new Cold War.
Chinese President Xi Jinping has emphasized the need for stronger Sino-Russian cooperation to protect their mutual interests, while affirming that their relationship surpasses traditional alliances. In a show of strategic partnership, Russia and China have begun creating an independent financial system to reduce reliance on Western institutions and evade sanctions. Moscow has also sought closer ties with New Delhi, exemplified by Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to India and an agreement to supply India with the S-500 missile system. These actions are part of a broader effort by China and Russia to counter US influence.
China has strongly criticized the AUKUS pact, labeling it a dangerous step that threatens regional and global security. Beijing argues that the agreement undermines efforts to prevent nuclear proliferation, a concern echoed by the International Atomic Energy Agency regarding the potential consequences of nuclear submarine programs. The alliance is particularly troubling for China, as it represents unprecedented collaboration between the US, UK, and Australia in the Indo-Pacific.
The stated objective of maintaining freedom of navigation in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans is viewed by China as a direct challenge to its regional authority. Plans to station a limited number of US and UK nuclear submarines in Western Australia by 2027, along with Canberra’s acquisition of American Virginia-class submarines, have exacerbated Chinese concerns. Beijing sees these measures as a significant threat to its security, likely leading to prolonged tensions between China and the AUKUS nations.
China has also warned that the pact could spark an arms race in the region, complicating efforts to limit nuclear weapons. Beijing remains wary of growing ties between the US and Taiwan, particularly given longstanding American military support for the island. President Xi has accused the US of leading Western efforts to encircle China, while Washington has defended its actions as a necessary response to Chinese threats against Taiwan.
The US has framed AUKUS as a vital step in ensuring regional stability, citing threats from North Korea and the broader need to protect allies such as Japan and South Korea. From Washington’s perspective, the submarines under AUKUS will enhance Australia’s defensive capabilities without violating its nuclear-weapon-free status, as they are not armed with nuclear warheads.
The AUKUS agreement represents a significant leap in Australia’s military capacity, as it becomes the second country after the UK to receive American nuclear technology. The advanced submarines, with superior speed and operational range compared to Australia’s diesel-powered fleet, will enable long-range strikes for the first time. Australian naval personnel will receive training at US and UK submarine bases, further strengthening the trilateral partnership.
Despite assurances from US President Joe Biden that AUKUS is aimed at promoting peace and stability, concerns remain about its broader implications. Analysts and policymakers have raised alarms about the potential for escalated tensions and military conflict between the US, China, and Russia. Critics argue that US-led alliances like AUKUS and the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue risk provoking an arms race, with significant repercussions for global security. The long-term impact of these alliances on regional and global stability remains a contentious issue.
